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Current Topic: Markets & Investing

Fed raises rates!
Topic: Markets & Investing 9:48 pm EDT, Sep 22, 2004

] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise
] its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points
] to 1-3/4 percent.
] The Committee believes that, even after this
] action, the stance of monetary policy remains
] accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth
] in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic
] activity. After moderating earlier this year partly in
] response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output
] growth appears to have regained some traction, and labor
] market conditions have improved modestly.

Fed raises rates!

Wired 12.08: Mandelbrot's challenge to the finance industry
Topic: Markets & Investing 11:47 am EDT, Aug  7, 2004

] A well-managed corporation devotes some portion of its
] research and development budget to basic research, in
] fields of science that underlie its main business. Isn't
] understanding the market as important to the economy as
] understanding solid-state physics is to IBM? If we can
] map the human genome, why can't we map how a man loses
] his livelihood? If millions can contribute a few cycles
] of their PCs to the search for a signal from outer space,
] why can't they join a coordinated search for patterns in
] financial markets?

Wired 12.08: Mandelbrot's challenge to the finance industry Only 32,000 Jobs Are Added in July
Topic: Markets & Investing 10:35 am EDT, Aug  6, 2004

] The 32,000 net jobs added in July represented the
] smallest gain in hiring since December and followed a
] revised gain of just 78,000 in June, even less than
] previously reported. May's payrolls also were revised
] down to show a gain of 208,000.
] "Employers got cold feet," said economist Ken Mayland,
] president of ClearView Economics. "Employers just don't
] have the confidence in the economy that we need to
] sustain the kind of economic growth that we've seen." Only 32,000 Jobs Are Added in July

Unwinding the Kerry trade - Commentary: Sell Iraq, buy the economy
Topic: Markets & Investing 11:27 am EDT, Jul 29, 2004

] I call it the Kerry trade, which is not to be confused
] with the "carry trade," a major position among hedge
] funds involving money borrowed at low U.S. interest rates
] and invested in products that pay higher rates.
] The Kerry trade has been rampant on Wall Street in the
] last several weeks as large investors sell their holdings
] to hedge against the possibility that the Massachusetts
] junior senator could actually, might possibly win in
] November.
] The theme behind it is that if a tax-and-spend Democrat
] wins the White House, the stock market will immediately
] tank, so better to sell now and be in cash as long as the
] polls indicate that it could be a close vote.
] But the theme is wrong for several reasons.

Unwinding the Kerry trade - Commentary: Sell Iraq, buy the economy Korean Broadband Explosion
Topic: Markets & Investing 1:23 pm EST, Jan 31, 2004

] But while the U.S. economy ekes forward, then slips back,
] the Korean and Chinese economies are growing some twice
] as fast. While the U.S. pretends to have a stock market
] resurgence--the figment of a commendably reflated
] dollar--Korea and China are undergoing real equity
] expansions

Check out South Korea Index: Korean Broadband Explosion

Value Line's forecast for the Dow in 2004
Topic: Markets & Investing 2:28 pm EST, Jan 28, 2004

] Believe it or not, the following projections are made by
] an advisory service whose 2004 target for the Dow Jones
] Industrials Average is 9,400 -- some 1,200 points below
] where it closed on Tuesday.

Value Line's forecast for the Dow in 2004

Buffet: America's growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us.
Topic: Markets & Investing 4:03 pm EST, Jan 13, 2004

] I'm about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade
] deficit and also suggest a remedy for the problem.

Buffet: America's growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us. A Scary Time for Stocks [Commentary] January 9, 2004
Topic: Markets & Investing 12:32 pm EST, Jan 13, 2004

] It's an especially good time to be humble and cautious,
] and to listen to investing legends like John Templeton
] (who has "never been more bearish"), Bill Gross (from his
] latest commentary: "bonds (and stocks too) will be low
] return asset classes for the foreseeable future"), Marty
] Whitman, George Soros, and Warren Buffett (who said he's
] "not finding anything" in the stock market and has
] purchased foreign currencies for the first time in his
] career because of his concerns about the U.S. trade
] deficit). A Scary Time for Stocks [Commentary] January 9, 2004

If 2004 goes bad, it will go really bad
Topic: Markets & Investing 12:44 am EST, Jan 13, 2004

] I've done nothing basically because the environment is so
] binary (and all these trades are different expressions of
] the same view) that I feel no compunction to rush into
] anything, especially in the shorting-stocks department.
] I would rather be late to that party than early, since
] it's so clear to me that when stocks go down next time,
] they're going to go down for real. I anticipate that we
] will see a huge decline, with the major averages falling
] over 50%.


If 2004 goes bad, it will go really bad

Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy
Topic: Markets & Investing 12:09 am EST, Jan  4, 2004

] SAN DIEGO (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan
] Greenspan said on Saturday that policymakers have been
] proven correct in their decision not to try to prick a
] 1990s stock-market bubble that subsequently broke on its
] own.
] "There appears to be enough evidence, at least
] tentatively, to conclude that our strategy of addressing
] the bubble's consequences rather than the bubble itself
] has been successful," Greenspan told the annual meeting
] of the American Economic Association in San Diego, Calif.

Greenspan Defends Fed Stock Bubble Policy

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