The gross injustice in our nation today is that over the last twenty years we have increasingly forced borrowers who take out bad loans to not only go bankrupt but be unable to discharge their debt, so long as they are individuals. The corporate bankrupt, however, maintain their "corporate veil" and thus can file Chapter 11 - or 7 - with impunity.
This is the root of the problems in our economy. It is the root cause of the credit bubble. It is the root cause of the housing bubble and the ridiculously-pumped pulled-forward demand curve that is now inexorably collapsing, despite the protests of The Fed, Treasury and The Administration.
We will not return to a balanced economy capable of organic growth so long as this imbalance exists.
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Recent analysis has shown that the FHA's "AUS TOTAL" decision-making program (computer-based underwriting) has been intentionally calibrated to produce unsustainable loans. Indeed, as I have documented FHA will provide an "approve" return on DTIs (when one includes the FHA "fudge factors") as high as 49% of gross income. This is clearly an unaffordable loan and is reflected in the current FHA delinquency and foreclosure rate which stands, at this point at more than one in five loans.
The true ugliness here is that these stats are far worse than they first appear. Why? Because more than half of the FHA total loan portfolio has been originated in the last two years.
Consider what this default ratio means given the portfolio composition, as there are only two possibilities - either the FHA is intentionally making loans that are defaulting quickly, within the first 24 months, or the older FHA loans are defaulting at an astronomical rate.
FHA is less-than-forthcoming when it comes to testimony before Congress on this point, and apparently, Congress has buried its head in the sand as well. Indeed, we have Congresspeople making statements that making dangerously-unsustainable loans is a "policy" intended to head off housing price declines.
But does and will it?
Does giving someone a loan that will foreclose in a year or two actually head off housing declines? Or does it simply bankrupt more Americans and defer the inevitable house price decline by a short period of time - a year or two at most, perhaps as little as a few months?
News that the FDIC fund is negative ~$8 billion does not reassure me that everything's okay. Seen those yields on 3 and 6 month treasuries lately? Effectively zero with speculation of heading into negative territory by year's end.
