ryan is the supernicety wrote:
] Ryan-- this is really important. I really would like to learn
] more on this. Are there any good studies or academic papers
] anyone knows about? This could be the defining point for our
] generation.

That's an understatement :) There's a good link at the bottom of the article:

http://www.newsgateway.ca/by_topic_peak_oil.htm

And I have to say so far, Heinberg's book "The Party's Over" puts things in quite a sharp focus.

Tom, there's a great chapter in the book about Non-Petroleum Energy Sources. The problem with fuel cells is that they are not energy sources, they are just carriers of energy. That stems from the fact that the process of hydrogen production uses more energy than the hydrogen will yield.

And on ethanol:

"Cornell University professor David Pimentel, who has performed a thorough net-energy analysis of ethanol, found that an acre of corn ultimately yields, on average, 328 gallons of ethanol. It takes 1,000 gallons of fossil fuels to plant, grow, and harvest this quantity of corn. Additional energy must be used in distilling the ethanol. In sum, 131,000 BTU are needed to make 1 gallon of ethanol, which has an energy value of only 77,000 BTU. This gives ethanol an EROEI [Energy Returned On Energy Invested, -ed] of roughly .59, meaning a 41 percent net loss of energy.[0]

A recent USDA study came to a more optimistic conclusion: it claims that ethanol offers a 34 percent energy profit.[1] This translates into an EROEI of 1.34, still hardly an impressive figure when compared to the historic or current EROEI for oil. The practical difference between Pimentel's .59 and the USDA's 1.34 is slight. In either case, if the entire US automotive fleet were to run on pure ethanol, nearly all of the continental US would be required in order to grow the feedstock. There would be no land left over even to house the American population, let alone feed it.

[0] http://unisci.com/stories/20013/0813012.htm
[1] "Study Finds Ethanol Production Energy Efficient," ENS, 2 August 2002

Here's the positive study on ethanol:

http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/2002/08/0322.htm

The reality is somewhere in the middle probably. The math on that puts it at about break even. Once again, back in the same boat as hydrogen, an energy carrier, not an energy source.

I really recommend this book. It's getting my attention and making me think really hard about where we should go from here. I think we should all be particularly worried. The road map you see, I believe the cartographers do not see the cliffs ahead.

RE: Observations and the State of Affairs - Peak Oil