We have identified our six top Internet themes/events for 1H’08 that could create trading opportunities in the group.
Intensifying 3rd party seller competition (negative) As the industry giant ($57bn in TTM GMV) eBay’s anticipated listing fee changes could impact the 3rd party market. We think Amazon ($5bn in TTM GMV) might incorporate some of this uncertainty (and consumer uncertainty), into its ‘08 outlook, potentially creating a buying opportunity as we expect little actual impact.
A bump Online media spending (positive) We see two events that could build enthusiasm on the Internet advertising market into the summer: elections and the TV writers strike. Direct dollars won’t be that material ($150mn possible direct benefit to Online adverting in ‘08), but extensive political spend could crowd non-political spending to Online display markets, which could be a catalyst for Yahoo or Google (YouTube).
Increasing focus on mobile market initiatives (both) CES and the spectrum auction will provide greater clarity on Google’s and Yahoo’s mobile strategies, we expect each company to be aggressive in 2008. Difficult to handicap the risk of Google winning the spectrum auction, but losing could be a stock catalyst. Also, we expect Yahoo’s to renegotiate its AT&T contract with a mobile partnership component, potentially clearing an overhang.
Improving display ad targeting technology (positive) A Google/DCLK merger may highlight possibility for improved targeting technology to drive up the value of Online ad inventory. We think Online CPMsat around $2.50, which trail newspapers by 5-10x has room to grow, and targeting will make social networking sites more competitive, but also benefit Yahoo! in ‘08.
Asset value unlock speculation (positive) The InterActive split into five entities expected in mid-2008 will be the catalyst and, in addition to potentially creating value for Interactive, the split could be an industry catalyst highlighting the underlying asset value for Yahoo ($10-11/share) and potentially even eBay (we value PayPal ~$10bn) or Expedia (TripAdvisor).
Social networking revenue model emergence (negative) Audiences are moving to social networking sites and the “interest targeting” ad sales initiative by MySpace is just a first step in competitive audience monetization. We expect more display/sponsorship/ad network initiatives, followed by peer-to-peer eCommerce and possibly personalized search in a few years. All large cap. Internet stocks (eBay, Google, Yahoo) have some degree of risk, although AOL, MSN and Yahoo! could have most in ‘08.
Governments and regional authorities often express the belief that the key to prosperity and economic expansion is related to the ability of countries to sustain regional clusters of competitiveness and innovation. The book reviews the most important conceptual approaches to the analysis of the emergence, growth and evolution of clusters of innovation. Drawing from the different experiences of industrial districts and high-tech regions such as Silicon Valley, Boston's biotech region, and Hsinchu-Taipei, the contributions in this book offer a broad interpretative framework and policy implications for the creation and strengthening of competitive clusters.
Themes include:
* the wide variety of existing clusters and the diversity in their emergence and growth; * the international mobility of factors and demand linkages; * the role of different network types and the social setting; * the accumulation of capabilities in key large actors and the importance of spinoffs and new firm formation; * the role of different learning regimes and sectoral specificities; * the importance of social networks, labour mobility, and face-to-face contacts as vehicles of knowledge spillovers.
Broad implications are drawn for the design of policies to encourage successful economic clusters in developed and developing clusters.
The new Eighth Edition of the Music Business Handbook and Career Guide maintains the tradition of this classic text as the most comprehensive, up-to-date guide to the $100 billion music industry. This new Eighth Edition expands on hot-button music business issues such as digital downloads, piracy, and record company transformations. Thoroughly revised, the Eighth Edition shares a particular emphasis on online music and its impact on the rest of the industry. The Eighth Edition also includes complete coverage of all aspects of the music industry, including songwriting, publishing, licensing, artist management, promotion, retailing, media, and much more.
New to This Edition
* Highlights the impact of online music, the iPod revolution, digital downloads, and cellular ring tones on the music industry * Features complete sections on entrepreneurial ventures and careers in music, including specific advice on getting started in the music business * Includes a revised Instructor's Manual on CD offering new in-the-classroom tips on how to best use the classic text as both a core and supplemental resource
This updated Eighth Edition of a bestseller is thorough in scope and ideal as the core textbook in courses such as Introduction to the Music Business, Music and Media, and survey courses. This book can also be used for more specialized courses on the record industry, music merchandising, music careers, artist management, music and the law, arts administration, and music in popular culture. Music business newcomers and professionals alike will find the new edition a valuable resource, whatever their specialty within the field.
On December 27, we issued the ninth in a series of our periodic updates to our Aviation Industry Performance Report. The report graphically identifies trends in aviation demand and capacity, aviation system performance, airline finances and service to small communities. This edition of the report focused on the summer of 2007, a time period when aviation delays as well as cancellations reached new highs and airline service captured the attention of the public, Congress, the Secretary of Transportation and the President of the United States. We found that airline on-time performance deteriorated broadly during the summer of 2007. Of the 55 large airports tracked by FAA, the number of delayed flights increased at 51 of the airports and the length of delays increased at 52 airports. Flight arrival delays, during the summer of 2007, increased by 15 percent from summer 2006 levels. In contrast, the number of scheduled flights increased at only 32 of the airports. Additionally, summer 2007 flight cancellations rose 28 percent from last year.
What works is hanging out with people who do the work you want to do, and developing substantive friendships based on ... the work. That's how others get to see you in action. It's how they assess your value. People love to talk shop. They hate to talk about where you'll get your next job.
If you devote from now until the end of your life hanging out with peers and revealing your value in a way that engages them and makes them want to keep in touch with you ... well, that's where job leads come from, without your ever having to ask.
“In this age of interactive media, the number of entertainment choices can be overwhelming,” Mr. Roberts said. “In one place, Fancast helps consumers figure out where the content is, all the information they want about entertainment, and then watch it wherever and whenever they want, including on the Internet.”
Producers and engineers call this "the loudness war," and it has changed the way almost every new pop and rock album sounds. But volume isn't the only issue. Computer programs like Pro Tools, which let audio engineers manipulate sound the way a word processor edits text, make musicians sound unnaturally perfect. And today's listeners consume an increasing amount of music on MP3, which eliminates much of the data from the original CD file and can leave music sounding tinny or hollow. "With all the technical innovation, music sounds worse," says Steely Dan's Donald Fagen, who has made what are considered some of the best-sounding records of all time. "God is in the details. But there are no details anymore."
From the archives:
"I finally tested positive for Pro Tools," said Steve Earle.
The people in those bands can't write, play, or sing. They make them sound good with pro-tools, because if they sing out of tune, they can just say, "Oh, punch a button. Put it in tune." Which is very frustrating to people like me, who spent, you know, 30, 40 years learning how to sing in tune in the first place. It is partly their own, you know, greed and, and lack of taste, but it's also partly a condition that's endemic in the country.
The current ethos in the United States of America is all to do with surface and nothing to do with substance. It doesn't matter that Britney Spears has nothing to say and is about as deep as a birdbath.
You've seen the Nissan Altima commercial where jungle brothers Ming + FS record the sound of doors slamming and windows going up and down, then run the sounds through ProTools to make a techno song.
There are other people who should read this book. Your girlfriend will better understand why you turn into a jerk in your home office. Your mom will understand why you don’t call. Giving this book to your boss is a tricky proposition. Even if he needs it, you can’t tell him that, so surreptitiously leave it in his office… like a pen.
Managing Humans is 209 pages with 34 chapters. The 6 pages per chapter average is ideal for your attention deficient lifestyle. People dig it.
This book isn't just about management, it's about creating places where people can comfortably build stuff. It's about what to do during the first ninety days of your new gig, and explains why you should pick a fight, because bright people often yell at each other.
JPMorgan’s Internet analyst Imran Khan and his team released a massive 312-page report this morning titled Nothing But Net that paints a bullish picture for the major Internet stocks
JPMorgan's new 312-page "Nothing but Net" report on the outlook for Internet-related tech equities in 2008 is good reading, but the initial headline takeaway is a big ramp in the forecast for online ad spending this year. From a prior estimate of 19.9%, analyst Imran Khan and team have ratcheted their forecast for U.S. paid search growth waaaay up to 31.9%.
