] The Japanese experience is not unique. Bear markets
] correct in time as well as price and they typically last
] about a third the duration of the bull market they are
] correcting. The nine-year bull market in the U.S. ending
] in 1929 took three years to correct. The 24-year bull
] market from 1942 to 1966 required an eight-year
] correction. If the last bull market started in 1982, then
] history suggests the correction might not be over until
] 2006! If we measure from the 1974 lows instead of 1982,
] then this pattern would suggest 2008-2009 for a final
] bottom.
]
] As bearish as this picture is, we should point out that
] the historical examples used above to posit a much longer
] corrective period to the bull market that ended in 2000
] consist of only three previous bull markets, including
] Japan's -- hardly a statistically significant sample!