k wrote:
] Current graph of the Iowa political Elections Market, one of
] the most accurate predictors of political elections for some
] time. It shows a wide and increasing gap between presidential
] candidates. In this particular case, I think I might start
] looking at moving to Canada.
]
] [ I think there's a fairly good chance that what this shows is
] people sending their money to democratic causes rather than
] investing in the presidential futures market.
]
] I did meme this last month because i thought it was pretty
] interesting as a concept, but all the indicators are all over
] the place this year. We have polls ranging from a dead heat
] to a 12 point lead. I don't think any predictors are faring
] well at the moment. -k]

The difference is that the IEW is the most *accurate* of predictors in elections, boasting a track record virtually unblemished since the 1988 elections. Polls are flawed and skewed entirely by methodology. NPR just had an article about that on this week, but I cannot find the link. We can only HOPE that the bias inherent in the types of people who play the Iowa market is causing the gap.

RE: IEM 2004 US Presidential Election Winner Takes All Market Price Graph