The war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has exposed deep rifts between Iran and Syria on the one hand and the conservative and America-friendly regimes in Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt on the other. This was dramatically underlined by Saudi Arabia’s unusually tough stance against Hezbollah at the outset of the conflict

It is well-known that amongst the West’s allies in the region, it is only the Saudis who can openly criticize American policy without risking their ties to Washington. Therefore, the fact they chose to unequivocally chastise Hezbollah (knowing full well what effect this will have on pro-Hezbollah public opinion in the Arab world) speaks volumes about growing Saudi desperation.

The Saudi stance against Hezbollah has less to do with fears of Iran’s growing geopolitical weight, than a demoralised reaction to the failure of its foreign policy in Lebanon. However, by choosing to side with Washington and Tel Aviv, the House of Saud risks deepening the dynamics that generate divisions and dissent in the Kingdom.

Already its controversial stance against Hezbollah has divided opinion in the Kingdom. The most important dissenter is Sheikh Salman al-Auda, a former Salafi hardliner, who has come out in support of Hezbollah. More broadly, there is significant grassroots support for Hezbollah, which is seen (as it is seen in other Arab countries) as the only effective tool against Israeli hegemony.

In the final analysis, the Lebanon war has not only imperilled 15 years of Saudi investments, but once again exposed the limitations of the Kingdom’s foreign policy. More ominously for the al-Saud, it has sharply divided opinion in the country and further discredited the official Wahabi Ulema. This is bound to undermine the regime’s security and create new forms of challenges and dissent long after the fighting stops in Lebanon.

I'd like to hear more about the effects of the current conflict on the internals of Saudi Arabia. I'd also like to hear some high level analysis on the political situation in Jordan, if any.

This next week is the time to start filling in question marks presented within the region. If America turns on the TV, and just hears vacant punditry all week, I'm going to be disappointed. Large chunks of the layout are still in question. If we hit the point of reiteration come monday, the US media has failed to bring the big picture in view, beyond pointing the obvious finger at Iran.

When pondering the current situation.. I have trouble envisioning September absent of a radically different layout in the Middle East.

At the very least, we have entered the post-nation-state era... Too many hyphens? New world order? I don't think that's what anyone was thinking...

No World Order? Two letters off, not bad.. And all the conspiracy theorists thought there would be some one-world-government thing going on. Common.. We can't even build a peacekeeping force.. Or a peace for it to keep!