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This page contains all of the posts and discussion on MemeStreams referencing the following web page: Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street. You can find discussions on MemeStreams as you surf the web, even if you aren't a MemeStreams member, using the Threads Bookmarklet.

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street
by possibly noteworthy at 8:04 am EST, Feb 24, 2009

Felix Salmon, in Wired:

For five years, Li's formula, known as a Gaussian copula function, looked like an unambiguously positive breakthrough, a piece of financial technology that allowed hugely complex risks to be modeled with more ease and accuracy than ever before. With his brilliant spark of mathematical legerdemain, Li made it possible for traders to sell vast quantities of new securities, expanding financial markets to unimaginable levels.

His method was adopted by everybody from bond investors and Wall Street banks to ratings agencies and regulators. And it became so deeply entrenched—and was making people so much money—that warnings about its limitations were largely ignored.

Then the model fell apart.

As Li himself said of his own model: "The most dangerous part is when people believe everything coming out of it."

Recently:

Smithers: That's quite a nice model, sir.

Burns: Model?

From last year:

The problem is not the ignorance. The problem is the bliss.

From 2004, Paul Graham:

This idea is so pervasive that even the kids believe it.

From 1998, Stewart Brand:

In some cultures you're supposed to be responsible out to the seventh generation -- that's about 200 years. But it goes right against self-interest.


 
 
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