"During the long bull market of the 1990s, Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel’s 1994 bestseller, Stocks for the Long Run, was the closest thing there was to an investor’s Bible, preaching the long-term benefits of stocks over bonds and cash. Then in 2000 Siegels friend and MIT graduate school classmate, Robert Shiller, warned of the risky, unpredictable nature of stocks in his own bestseller, Irrational Exuberance.
Just as Siegel’s book had seemed to predict – perhaps even to help create – one of the greatest bull markets in U.S. history, the book by Shiller, an economics professor at Yale, was dead-on in forecasting the stock-market plunge that began in the spring of 2000.
With two years to test these dueling views against real market data, which holds up best? "