What we've learned in software so far is that you can build things out of junk, but that finding out what to build and how to best design it takes creativity - that is, lots of tries, working with the folks who will use the stuff in the end, and perfecting the best attempt. It's too bad building software isn't like building bridges. It's more like writing novels - maybe like writing science fiction.

Lessons From the Science of Nothing At All

Some further ruminations on Janelane's prior post.

The modern low on the Graham P/E was 6.6 in July and August of 1982, and it has sunk below 10 for several long stretches since World War II -- most recently, from 1977 through 1984. It would take a bottom of about 600 on the S&P 500 to take the current Graham P/E down to 10. That's roughly a 30% drop from last week's levels; an equivalent drop would take the Dow below 6000.

Could the market really overshoot that far on the downside? "That's a serious possibility, because it's done it before," says Prof. Shiller. "It strikes me that it might go down a lot more" from current levels.

In order to trade at a Graham P/E as bad as the 1982 low, the S&P 500 would have to fall to roughly 400, more than a 50% slide from where it is today. A similar drop in the Dow would hit bottom somewhere around 4000.

What History Tells Us About the Market - WSJ.com

From PEU (Private Equity Underwriter) Report:

The G-7 group of nations formulated a plan to address the faltering global economy in Washington, D.C. Halfway across the globe, private equity underwriters (PEUs) gather in Dubai for the SuperReturn Conference. In case anyone forgot, pursuit of super returns by Wall Street investment houses helped get us into our current pickle. The Scotsman reported on the G-7 meeting:

The wider, five-point G7 plan is:

• Take decisive action and use all available tools to support important financial institutions and prevent their failure.
• Take all steps to unfreeze credit and money markets.
• Ensure banks can raise capital via public and private sources.
• Ensure national deposit guarantee programs are robust.
• Take action, where appropriate, to restart the "secondary markets" for mortgages and other assets.

However, there was no further detail last night. In a surprisingly brief statement after their meeting, the G7 also stopped short of backing a UK plan to guarantee lending between banks – a move many on Wall Street saw as vital.

"The G7 agrees the current situation calls for urgent and exceptional action," the statement by US, Canada, Britain, France, Italy, Germany and Japan said.

Finance leaders are to continue meeting this weekend to agree a global solution. Analysts said the summits, which involve the G7 and G20 nations, as well as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, are of "truly monumental importance".

The Gulf Daily News reported on SuperReturn:

A top private equity conference, SuperReturn, has a strong line-up of global thought-leaders speaking at its second Middle East conference taking place next week in Dubai.
SuperReturn Middle East will be held from tomorrow to Wednesday at the Intercontinental Hotel, Festival City, Dubai.

Headlining speakers at the event will include eminent and powerful global private equity figures, such as Investcorp's president and chief operating officer Gary Long, Carlyle Group chairman David Rubenstein and Blackstone Group chief executive officer and co-founder of Steve Schwarzman.

"We are delighted to be a principal partner of such a prestigious event," said Mr Long. "SuperReturn is the definitive private equity forum. Its success and standing in Europe is now being replicated here in the Middle East at a time of increasing excitement and opportunity for the local private equity industry."

The Middle East is full of dollar stuffed sovereign wealth funds. They have $2.5 trillion in assets. They're front and center as U.S. banks look for new capital. World Bank President Bob Zoellick already had them on the agenda. What luck!

"You will also see the sovereign wealth funds – and they have already been doing this – play a role in recapitalising financial institutions. You've already seen some ... [ Read More (0.1k in body) ]

A Tale of Two Meetings

Cassini Photos of Enceladus

This essay makes the underlying assumption that scientific information is an economic commodity, and that scientific journals are a medium for its dissemination and exchange. While this exchange system differs from a conventional market in many senses, including the nature of payments, it shares the goal of transferring the commodity (knowledge) from its producers (scientists) to its consumers (other scientists, administrators, physicians, patients, and funding agencies). The function of this system has major consequences. Idealists may be offended that research be compared to widgets, but realists will acknowledge that journals generate revenue; publications are critical in drug development and marketing and to attract venture capital; and publishing defines successful scientific careers. Economic modeling of science may yield important insights.

Why Current Publication Practices May Distort Science

Life is more varied near the equator. But making sense of that has confounded biologists for 200 years.

The Trouble with Biodiversity

After forty years of making a living using words in every medium, print or electronic, except greeting cards, Roy Blount Jr. still can’t get over his ABCs. In Alphabet Juice, he celebrates the juju, the sonic and kinetic energies of letters and their combinations. Blount does not prescribe proper English. The franchise he claims is “over the counter” and concentrates more on questions such as these: Did you know that both mammal and matter derive from baby talk? Have you noticed how wince makes you wince?

Three and a half centuries ago, Sir Thomas Blount produced Blount’s Glossographia, the first dictionary to explore derivations of English words. This Blount’s Glossographia takes that pursuit to other levels. It rejects the standard linguistic notion that the connection between words and their meanings is “arbitrary.” Even the word arbitrary is shown to be no more arbitrary, at its roots, than go-to guy or crackerjack. From sources as venerable as the OED (in which Blount finds an inconsistency, at whisk) and as fresh as Urbandictionary.com (to which Blount has contributed the number-one definition of “alligator arm”), and especially from the author’s own wide-ranging experience, Alphabet Juice derives an organic take on language that is unlike, and more fun than, any other.

The Washington Post has a review.

Alphabet Juice: The Energies, Gists, and Spirits of Letters, Words, and Combinations Thereof; Their Roots, Bones, Innards, Piths, Pips, and Secret Parts, ... With Examples of Their Usage Foul and Savory

The question that comes to my mind whenever I catch a glimpse of aggregate consumption is always the same: How can it last?

Fear of fallowing: The specter of a no-growth world

So, without further ado, here are the five regular expressions that I have found the most useful for day-to-day web programming tasks.

5 Regular Expressions Every Web Programmer Should Know

All U.S. agencies with counterterrorism programs that collect or "mine" personal data -- such as phone records or Web sites visited -- should be required to evaluate the programs' effectiveness, lawfulness, and impacts on privacy. A framework is offered that agencies can use to evaluate such information-based programs, both classified and unclassified. The book urges Congress to re-examine existing privacy law to assess how privacy can be protected in current and future programs and recommends that any individuals harmed by violations of privacy be given a meaningful form of redress. Two specific technologies are examined: data mining and behavioral surveillance. Regarding data mining, the book concludes that although these methods have been useful in the private sector for spotting consumer fraud, they are less helpful for counterterrorism because so little is known about what patterns indicate terrorist activity. Regarding behavioral surveillance in a counterterrorist context, the book concludes that although research and development on certain aspects of this topic are warranted, there is no scientific consensus on whether these techniques are ready for operational use at all in counterterrorism.

Protecting Individual Privacy in the Struggle Against Terrorists: A Framework for Program Assessment