Decius wrote:

The war in Georgia, therefore, is Russia’s public return to great power status... Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

Why did the U.S. bless this conflict? Did they intend to provide Russia this opportunity to make a demonstration in exchange for some covert concession?

It occurs to me that perhaps they figured Russia planned invade outright and they wanted to push their hand early.

Was hoping Stratfor would have something public soon, good read. One angle that occurred to me was if we get something started, chances are the next US President, whoever it may be, will pretty much have to pick up the mantle. A little insurance by Bush/Cheney? Could they be that cynical?

As for the question of why did Georgia attack when they did, there's an old saying: When the cat is away the mice will play. The Olympics, Putin away, all that.

Here's something I just started, haven't finished but so far so good:

http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=19538

Talks about the NATO angle and how alliances can also be breeding grounds for wars.

Here's something from Nov 2007 about Georgia's build up.

http://www.tiraspoltimes.com/news/arms_build_up_as_georgia_prepares_war_on_abkhazia_south_ossetia.html

Look like the US started the arms build up in earnest in 2002. Long time coming.

RE: The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor