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There are great benefits to connectedness, but we haven't wrapped our minds around the costs.

Concept Mapping Goes Global
Topic: High Tech Developments 1:46 pm EDT, Jun  2, 2005

"We need to move education from a memorizing system and repetitive system to a dynamic system."

"It helps you reflect on what you've learned so that you can go into it deeper."

"If you organize it as a concept map, then you have to understand the topic. We want kids to become knowledge constructors instead of just information consumers."

Concept Mapping Goes Global


New Ways to Drive Home the Message
Topic: TV 11:58 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

There's lots of hand-wringing on Madison Avenue these days.

The industry must adapt to a coming world where consumers enjoy total control and will no longer tolerate tedious [advertising].

Advertising insiders theorize that most companies will soon target multiple, smaller pools of consumers. The key will be finding audiences that are interested in the product to begin with. Fulfilling this vision will require significant changes in the ad industry.

New Ways to Drive Home the Message


American Idle?
Topic: TV 10:28 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

There's nothing like a little mathematical rigor to dispel the myth of drama in reality TV.

We hate to admit two things: first, that we watch Fox TV's American Idol and second, that the contest is not as close as it appears.

While it may be the case that American's are truly divided on such issues (red and blue, and all of that), we suspect that it is the "idle" voting system that is accounting for the tightness of the contest, not a closely divided American public.

In the 2003 vote, around 240 million calls were made to the phone lines, but only 24 million calls got through. Thus, only one in ten calls did not get a busy signal.

Suppose that, indeed, one contestant has far more fans than the other, and as soon as voting begins both groups start to call. To keep things simple, let's assume fans keep dialing if they get a busy signal. If the phone system is not fast enough, then we might find ourselves in a situation where the voting closes, yet there are still fans on both sides trying to dial. While, of course, there are a lot more fans of the more popular contestant that are left dialing at the end, the vote totals are due to the callers who got through. Since the phone lines accept calls at roughly the same rate, the vote totals for the two contestants will be much closer than the actual fan base would indicate.

American Idle?


How Mark Felt Became 'Deep Throat'
Topic: Media 9:08 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

Felt said that if he had something for me, he could get me a message. He quizzed me about my daily routine, what came to my apartment, the mailbox, etc. The Post was delivered outside my apartment door. I did have a subscription to the New York Times. A number of people in my apartment building near Dupont Circle got the Times. The copies were left in the lobby with the apartment number. Mine was No. 617, and it was written clearly on the outside of each paper in marker pen.

Felt said if there was something important he could get to my New York Times -- how, I never knew. Page 20 would be circled, and the hands of a clock in the lower part of the page would be drawn to indicate the time of the meeting that night, probably 2 a.m., in the same Rosslyn parking garage.The relationship was a compact of trust; nothing about it was to be discussed or shared with anyone, he said.

How he could have made a daily observation of my balcony is still a mystery to me. At the time, before the era of intensive security, the back of the building was not enclosed, so anyone could have driven in the back alley to observe my balcony. In addition, my balcony and the back of the apartment complex faced onto a courtyard or back area that was shared with a number of other apartment or office buildings in the area. My balcony could have been seen from dozens of apartments or offices, as best I can tell.

A number of embassies were located in the area. The Iraqi Embassy was down the street, and I thought it possible that the FBI had surveillance or listening posts nearby. Could Felt have had the counterintelligence agents regularly report on the status of my flag and flowerpot? That seems highly unlikely, if not impossible.

Bob Woodward on his relations with Mark Felt.

How Mark Felt Became 'Deep Throat'


America's DNA - Tom Friedman
Topic: War on Terrorism 8:34 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

Can you successfully identify the subtext in this column? Think about it. (It's not in this quote.)

Bottom line: We urgently need a national commission to look at all the little changes we have made in response to 9/11 - from visa policies to research funding, to the way we've sealed off our federal buildings, to legal rulings around prisoners of war - and ask this question: While no single change is decisive, could it all add up in a way so that 20 years from now we will discover that some of America's cultural and legal essence - our DNA as a nation - has become badly deformed or mutated?

This would be a tragedy for us and for the world. Because, as I've argued, where birds don't fly, people don't mix, ideas don't get sparked, friendships don't get forged, stereotypes don't get broken, and freedom doesn't ring.

Tom Friedman talked about this column (and his daughter's eighth grade project) in his talk at MIT. If you haven't watched it yet, it's worth a listen.

America's DNA - Tom Friedman


The Lure of Opium Wealth
Topic: Business 8:08 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

The State Department recently called the Afghan drug trade "an enormous threat to world stability." The UN estimates that Afghanistan produces 87% of the world's opium.

The opium trade is booming, partly the result of the US strategy for overthrowing the Taliban and stabilizing the country after two decades of war.

As long as the Taliban pay cash, the warlords are pleased to let bygones be bygones.

"The idea is not to leave them in the provinces anymore, but to bring them on board in official positions in order to better control them."

Of course, this is known as the Dilbert principle of counter-narcotics.

The United Nations estimates that Afghan opium, morphine and heroin feed the habits of 10 million addicts, or two-thirds of the world's opiate abusers. Afghan narcotics kill about 10,000 people a year, it says.

One Kunduz trafficker estimated that there was enough opium stashed in village wells and other hiding places to keep labs and smugglers working for 10 to 15 years, even if poppy cultivation stopped entirely. Schmidt said that was probably an underestimation.

"Trying to get rid of drugs in Afghanistan is like trying to clear sand from a beach with a bucket," said an American counter-narcotics agent.

He predicted that the government crackdown would be good for business. Increased arrests and interdiction would cut competition and reduce the glut that forced down prices by two-thirds last year.

"The more restrictions, the more the business will boom," the trafficker said. "The price will go high, the number of dealers will go down, and my income will go up. The professional businessmen will remain. They have good connections. Whoever works hard in a business wins."

So, how's your liberal democracy doing in the war on drugs?

The Lure of Opium Wealth


Into al Qaeda's Lair
Topic: War on Terrorism 6:15 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

Gary C. Schroen's astonishing new book tells the story of how a handful of CIA agents led the initial post-Sept. 11 charge against al Qaeda and its Taliban patrons, far outstripping the agency's lumbering competitor, the U.S. military. The CIA, which had been working with Afghan assets since the 1980s jihad against the Soviet occupation, was quick out of the blocks after the 2001 terrorist attacks; the U.S. military, despite having bombed al Qaeda camps in August 1998, had no off-the-shelf invasion plans and had to scurry to the drawing board. The Pentagon's Special Operations units would hook up with their CIA counterparts weeks later. By underscoring that gap, the pointedly named First In will make Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld grind his teeth.

The staggering detail in these pages -- operational, geopolitical -- makes First In unlike any other CIA memoir.

... a stunning book -- both an essential document about the strange and oft-forgotten war against the Taliban, a withering policy critique and a proud memoir from an aging man who risked life and limb to try to kill al Qaeda's masterminds.

Into al Qaeda's Lair


Traffic-based feedback on the web
Topic: Knowledge Management 4:54 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

Usage data at a high-traffic web site can expose information about external events and surges in popularity that may not be accessible solely from analyses of content and link structure.

We study a simple indicator of collective user interest in an item, the batting average, defined as the fraction of visits to an item’s description that result in an acquisition of that item.

We develop a stochastic model for identifying points in time at which an item's batting average experiences significant change.

In experiments with usage data from the Internet Archive, we find that such changes often occur in an abrupt, discrete fashion, and that these changes can be closely aligned with events such as the highlighting of an item on the site or the appearance of a link from an active external referrer.

In this way, analyzing the dynamics of item popularity at an active web site can help characterize the impact of a range of events taking place both on and off the site.

Traffic-based feedback on the web


It's Not a Bubble Until It Bursts
Topic: Economics 3:27 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

"I'm going to rent for a while."

"Yeah, I'm bitter. I want to own my own home. I want it badly." When the crash comes, she said, "I will have no qualms about swooping in on someone's foreclosure."

It's possible that something fundamental in the nature of real estate has shifted over the last three years, powering the growth while tamping down the risks.

What's changed is the job picture.

"It's kind of troubling, like you were a physicist studying the laws of motion and you see an object that ignores gravity."

It's Not a Bubble Until It Bursts


FOX & Friends - Guests and Topics for Thursday, June 2, 2005
Topic: War on Terrorism 2:05 am EDT, Jun  2, 2005

With all the hullabaloo over Deep Throat, Tim Naftali got bumped from the Wednesday show.

Here's what is on tap for Thursday, June 2, 2005:

"FOX & Friends First"

Can the US effectively stop terrorism? We'll get a read from Tim Naftali, author of "Blind Spot."

I'm not a regular viewer of this program, but based on scanning through Wednesday's show, I don't expect the interview to last more than a few minutes.

FOX & Friends - Guests and Topics for Thursday, June 2, 2005


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