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Buffett said he doesn't believe things are that bad right now, and that stock markets are, "way out of sync with the economy."

Buffett remains confident in stocks - Sep. 25, 2002

As investors anxiously await a stock market recovery, a top Las Vegas bookmaker says the odds strongly favor a rally next year.

Joe Lupo, race and sports book manager for the Stardust, set the odds at 2-1 that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end 2003 between 9,000 and 10,000. (DJIA: news, chart, profile)

Lupo saw a far greater chance the Dow will soar rather than collapse. He put the odds at 4-1 that it will close the year above 11,000 -- in the area of its record high 11,909 -- and the chances of it finishing below 6,000 at 100-1.

If you don't want to bet on a company on Wall St., bet on the odds!

Those leanings (Wall Street calls this investor and consumer sentiment) are bordering on lethal. "Not only is the market a ticking time bomb, but so is the global economy," says Jeff Morgan, whose main credentials are an e-mail account, a brain and the eyes to see what others can't. "I'm constantly amazed at how many people are in denial. And we sure don't need to dance with Iraq anytime soon. I don't want a self-fulfilling prophecy, but people had better get their finances in order real soon because the bottom is going to fall out just like a big sink hole."

Danger: Sink hole ahead

Behavioral finance -- which examines how people's emotions, biases, and misjudgments affect their investment decisions -- is one of the least discussed and understood areas of investing.

CHARLIE MUNGER ON THE PSYCHOLOGY OF HUMAN MISJUDGMENT

Markets like these are enough to drive most investors to drink. That's what a new fund is hoping, anyway.

The Vice Fund, the latest brainchild of mutual fund broker Mutuals.com, invests in a wide swath of "sin" stocks. After all, the theory goes, such stocks are recession-proof -- no matter how bad the economy gets, people will always drink, smoke, gamble and well, you get the idea.

The fund will focus primarily on four areas: alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and aerospace and defense, according to portfolio co-manager Dan Ahrens. At least 90% of the fund's assets will be invested in these four areas.

'Sin' Stocks

Main Street investors can now get a taste of living large -- just like the high rollers of the investment world.

At least that's what veteran fund executive Steve Samson says about his new mutual fund that looks and feels like a hedge fund.

During the market's recent 2-1/2-year slump, hedge funds -- those loosely regulated investment pools long reserved for the wealthy -- beat out most other investment vehicles with huge returns.

"We are not promising the world, but we are promising consistent, absolute positive returns over market cycles," says Samson, principal at Alternative Investment Partners LLC in Chappaqua, New York.

New Mutual Fund to Act Like a Hedge Fund

From his interview:

"I believe it’s time for people to prepare for a vast economic disaster, which will include a deflationary crash and an economic depression as bad or worse than the one suffered in the early 1930s."

What should we do?
My book is subtitled “How To Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression,” and it will tell you exactly how to..

Well, he is trying to sell his book, but does sound interesting...

Book: Conquer the Crash

While some socially responsible mutual funds are out there trying to save the planet and others try to save your soul, one socially irresponsible fund is hoping to profit big from the wages of sin.

The new antisocial mutual, aptly dubbed the Vice Fund, targets the so-called sin stocks long eschewed by socially responsible investors and considered virtually "recession-proof" by its managers: tobacco, gaming, alcohol and defense stocks.

"We're not out there to do nothing but socially irresponsible investing, but the point of investing is to make money. ... That means investing in those markets that do well," said portfolio manager Eric McDonald, who co-manages the fund with Dan Ahrens.

The antisocial mutual fund - Vice Fund: Politically incorrect and socially irresponsible?

July 23 — One of the great surprises of the stock market’s downturn is how fiercely investors have clung to traditional investment advice even as their portfolios have crumbled. As individual investors swarmed into the stock market during the long boom, a parade of experts began to tout some now-familiar investment dictates.

Investors stick with tradition as portfolios take beating