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Current Topic: Economics

The Hays Files: Shades of recession
Topic: Economics 2:41 pm EDT, Apr  6, 2003

As expected, the second big economic shoe dropped this week and hit with a resounding thud: another big job loss in March and an even bigger one in February than was previously announced. Add that to news this week of a downturn in manufacturing and what do you get? Two important recession signals flashing the same message: Danger Will Robinson!
Here's what matters in trying to figure out where the economy is heading, the four main indicators of recession:

1. Employment - the number of jobs created each month
2. Industrial output -- mainly manufacturing
3. Personal income -- think monthly paycheck
4. Business sales -- wholesale and retail

The Hays Files: Shades of recession

Greenspan: Secure intellectual property
Topic: Economics 10:50 am EST, Apr  4, 2003

] Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday the
] growing share of the economy made up of less tangible
] "intellectual property" increases the need to figure out
] "appropriate" legal protections.
] "Whether we protect intellectual property as an
] inalienable right or as a privilege vouchsafed by the
] sovereign, such protection inevitably entails making some
] choices that have crucial implications for the balance we
] strike between the interests of those who innovate and
] those who would benefit from innovation," he said in
] prepared remarks to be delivered by satellite to an
] economic conference in Sea Island, Ga.

Greenspan: Secure intellectual property

After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequences
Topic: Economics 3:15 pm EST, Mar 20, 2003

Background Paper: Oil Prices Paths under the Four Scenarios

After an Attack on Iraq: The Economic Consequences

India could face IT staff drought
Topic: Economics 1:23 pm EST, Feb 19, 2003

] India could be faced with a shortage of a quarter-million
] information technology workers in five years unless there
] is reform in technical education, warned an IT industry
] association in the country. The supply of IT workers in India
] will likely reach only 885,000 in five years, translating to a
] shortfall of 235,000 professionals, according to Nasscom.

Isn't this a good thing? As IT people in the US will have more jobs?!

India could face IT staff drought

New tax plan may bring burden shift
Topic: Economics 1:42 pm EST, Dec 16, 2002

] "Poor could pay a bigger share; rich could benefit"

Sounds like the Repblican way...

New tax plan may bring burden shift

O'Neill, Lindsey didnt meet the test
Topic: Economics 5:35 pm EST, Dec  6, 2002

] "First came word Friday that the jobless rate had risen
] to a nine-year high of 6 percent. The last time it was
] that high America was in a recession. Now Mr. Bush has
] apparently requested the resignation of Mr. O%u2019Neill
] and Mr. Lindsey. What%u2019s up?"
]There had been some rumblings that was coming. Sen. Richard
]Shelby, the Republican incoming chairman of the banking
] committee, had urged the White House not to rush into it. But
] this president now has three major appointments that he must
] make — his secretary of the Treasury, his chief economic
] adviser and head of SEC.

O'Neill, Lindsey didnt meet the test

Luxury tax on cars expires in 2003
Topic: Economics 1:00 pm EST, Dec  6, 2002

] "The long dwindling luxury tax on automobiles will be
] completely phased out on January 1, 2003. Car sellers
] will then no longer have to pay the tax of three percent
] of the amount of the sales price that exceeds $40,000.
] That means that the price of your new car will be reduced
] by the amount the dealer saves in taxes. So if you can
] wait a few months to purchase that new Hummer, it may
] well be worth your while."

Luxury tax on cars expires in 2003

Treasury Secretary stepping down
Topic: Economics 9:42 am EST, Dec  6, 2002

] "Paul O%u2019Neill, whose outspokenness won him praise as
] a captain of industry but often landed him in hot water
] as President Bush%u2019s treasury secretary, announced
] his resignation Friday."

Cya later aligator...

Treasury Secretary stepping down

Color is coming to U.S. paper money
Topic: Economics 9:10 am EST, Dec  2, 2002

] "The last time Andrew Jackson got a makeover, he ended up
] with a big head, slightly off-center. This time, he will
] get a little color. The most noticeable features of the
] last redesign of U.S. currency %u2014 the oversized,
] off-center portraits %u2014 produced all kinds of
] derisive nicknames: funny money, Monopoly money, cartoon
] money."

Color is coming to U.S. paper money

Double-dip alert - Washington statisticians have once again redefined the economic landscape.
Topic: Economics 2:17 pm EDT, Aug  2, 2002

Courtesy of the so-called benchmark revision of the national income and product accounts, the recent performance of the U.S. economy has been cast in a very different light. The direction of this annual revision was hardly a shocker. The incoming monthly flow data had tipped us off to expect a weaker picture than the previous data had painted.

But there is more to this revision than statistical noise. In my opinion, the new data now place the U.S. economy right on the brink of another recessionary relapse -- the dreaded double dip.

Double dips happen because demand relapses invariably occur at just the time when businesses are lifting production in order to rebuild inventories. With the current production upswing well advanced -- industrial production has risen for six consecutive months -- a demand relapse would come at a most inopportune time.

Yet with the U.S. economy now back to its stall speed, that's precisely the risk. Courtesy of the government's newly revised depiction of the U.S. economy, the odds of a double dip have risen, in my view. I would now place a 60 percent to 65 percent chance on such a possibility in the second half of this year.

Double-dip alert - Washington statisticians have once again redefined the economic landscape.

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