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Current Topic: International Relations

Order in the Courts
Topic: International Relations 11:39 pm EDT, Aug 30, 2006

Good news for Afghanistan?

It's been a bad year for Afghanistan. Insurgents are gaining ground and killing more coalition soldiers, Afghan officials and civilians than at any time since the fall of the Taliban government. Reconstruction is faltering. A disenchanted population appears to be pulling back the welcome mat for foreign forces.

But a recent turn of events could have a significant positive impact on Afghanistan’s future.

Judges can put people in jail; it's not clear how they can create legitimate business opportunities for most Afghans.

Order in the Courts


O Canada, do we stand on guard for thee?
Topic: International Relations 6:42 am EDT, Aug 10, 2006

More than half a million people in Canada hold two or more passports, according to the 2001 census. More than half of them are European, with dual British Canadians alone accounting for 90,000. Canadian citizens, whether dual or not, are abroad in large numbers with 250,000 living in Hong Kong, while close to a million reside in the U.S.

What if they all needed to get out in a hurry?

O Canada, do we stand on guard for thee?


Does Iran have something in store? | Bernard Lewis
Topic: International Relations 6:41 am EDT, Aug 10, 2006

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

A passage from the Ayatollah Khomeini, quoted in an 11th-grade Iranian schoolbook, is revealing. "I am decisively announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [i.e., the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against their whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom which is martyrdom. Either we shake one another's hands in joy at the victory of Islam in the world, or all of us will turn to eternal life and martyrdom. In both cases, victory and success are ours."

In this context, mutual assured destruction, the deterrent that worked so well during the Cold War, would have no meaning. At the end of time, there will be general destruction anyway. What will matter will be the final destination of the dead--hell for the infidels, and heaven for the believers. For people with this mindset, MAD is not a constraint; it is an inducement.

How then can one confront such an enemy, with such a view of life and death? Some immediate precautions are obviously possible and necessary. In the long term, it would seem that the best, perhaps the only hope is to appeal to those Muslims, Iranians, Arabs and others who do not share these apocalyptic perceptions and aspirations, and feel as much threatened, indeed even more threatened, than we are. There must be many such, probably even a majority in the lands of Islam. Now is the time for them to save their countries, their societies and their religion from the madness of MAD.

Does Iran have something in store? | Bernard Lewis


What Hezbollah wants
Topic: International Relations 6:41 am EDT, Aug 10, 2006

Hezbollah wants an Islamic world and believes such a world to be worth killing and dying for. Recently, that way of organizing society has crept into another corner of the globe. After a 29-year separatist struggle, the Indonesian province of Aceh won the right to adopt Shariah criminal law, becoming the first region of that country (a theoretically secular state) with that privilege. The radicals have beaten the moderates, and now the moderates face a dreadful future.

What Hezbollah wants


Hezbollah's Other War
Topic: International Relations 6:40 am EDT, Aug 10, 2006

As the violence continues, retribution is in the air. Israel has focused its attacks on Shiites, leaving Sunni, Christian and Druse areas (though not their long-term welfare) relatively intact. Amid all the destruction, many a representative of the March 14 movement has denounced Hezbollah’s ‘‘adventurism,’’ provoking Shiite resentment. As one Hezbollah combatant recently told The Guardian: ‘‘The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let’s finish with the Israelis, and then we will settle scores later.’’

This essentially repeated what Hassan Nasrallah told Al Jazeera in an interview broadcast a week after the conflict began: ‘‘If we succeed in achieving the victory . . . we will never forget all those who supported us at this stage. . . . As for those who sinned against us . . . those who made mistakes, those who let us down and those who conspired against us . . . this will be left for a day to settle accounts. We might be tolerant with them, and we might not.’’

Hezbollah's Other War


Indonesia bows to rule of the rod
Topic: International Relations 6:40 am EDT, Aug 10, 2006

ACROSS Indonesia's most religious of provinces, the sight of brown uniformed policemen has come to signify one thing. The brutal enforcement of Sharia law which is raising fears about the future of the world's most populous Muslim country.

They haul unmarried couples into precincts and arrest people for drinking or gambling. Increasingly, many of the cases are pushed to the ultimate conclusion, public canings at mosques in front of excited crowds.

In mid-July, a 27-year-old man sentenced to 40 lashes fainted on the seventh stroke of a rattan cane from a hooded man in the yard of a mosque here in the provincial capital.

The caning was televised nationally, with a presenter saying that the man, who had been arrested for drinking at a beachside stall, would receive the remainder of his punishment once he had recovered.

Battered by the Asian tsunami 19 months ago, Aceh is undergoing a profound transformation that is likely to have considerable impact on the nature of Islam in Indonesia.

Indonesia bows to rule of the rod


North Korea's Missile Tests | PINR - Intelligence Brief
Topic: International Relations 11:26 pm EDT, Jul  6, 2006

North Korea's decision on Wednesday morning to test six to ten missiles demonstrates Pyongyang's assessment that the United States will not react decisively to its new show of force. Instead, Pyongyang sees these latest missile tests as an opportunity to demonstrate its perceived threat potential, which it presumes can be used at a later date to extract concessions from the United States and its allies.

North Korea's Missile Tests | PINR - Intelligence Brief


Somalia's Fluid Politics Move Toward Polarization | PINR
Topic: International Relations 11:26 pm EDT, Jul  6, 2006

The T.F.G., the A.U., the A.L., I.G.A.D. and the U.N. are powerless to avert a confrontation. Discredited by its former support of the warlords, Washington has failed to provide leadership, allowing divisions within the T.F.G. and the regional organizations to neutralize their effectiveness. Increasingly dependent on Ethiopia, the T.F.G. will find it difficult to make the concessions necessary to satisfy the I.C.C. The rivalry between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the tentativeness of Kenya and Uganda, eviscerate the A.U. and I.G.A.D. The A.L.-sponsored peace process is the only game in town, but the increasing polarization on the ground renders its success problematic.

The drift toward polarization is likely to continue until violent conflict erupts, one of the current key players retreats, or a player emerges from the sidelines with a fresh initiative. Given the prevalence of mutual uncertainties and suspicions, recent events in Somalia point toward further destabilization.

Somalia's Fluid Politics Move Toward Polarization | PINR


Jihad 2.0 | The Atlantic
Topic: International Relations 11:26 pm EDT, Jul  6, 2006

With the loss of training camps in Afghanistan, terrorists have turned to the Internet to find and train recruits. The story of one pioneer of this effort—the enigmatic “Irhabi 007” -- shows how

Pick up the magazine at your local news stand to read the full text.

Jihad 2.0 | The Atlantic


Afghanistan: On the Brink
Topic: International Relations 3:16 pm EDT, Jun  3, 2006

In December 2005 I spent several hours a day in the lobby of the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul interviewing some of the people who passed by.

Afghanistan: On the Brink


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