Read this whole letter - and see if you can discern what's going on here. Leaving Iraq anytime in the next 5 years will be very very bad.

This is an odd letter. Basically:

Please don't get pissed off cause we think you're cool and all but you can't see the forrest for the trees, so stop doing what you are doing right away. Also, could you please document all your processes so we can fire you are take over your operation? Oh, and if you happen to have $100,000 could you help a brother out? BTW, we think your web site is totally COOL!!!11 I've enclosed a copy of my latest spoken word album. If you could host it that would rock.

The cryptic signoff must mean that they don't trust their couriers to keep their mouths shut about who they are delivering messages for.

I said last month that Zarqawi was undermining Al'Q's broder strategic interests by declaring war on the Shia. Al'Q's leadership agrees with ME?! Now THATS something I never thought I would say!

I must say I was impressed with this gem of wisdom:

Judiciousness precedes the courage of the courageous which is second. And when the two blend in one free soul it reaches everywhere in the heavens.

I might offer the same advice to the Bush Administration on Iraq... And Mr. Bush, if you are reading, and you happen to have $100,000 lying around, I could really use it.

All joking aside...

1. America is going to leave Iraq. Sooner or later, it will happen, and the result will be inevitable.
2. An Islamic theocratic state is going to be established there.
3. People involved with the state will be connected directly to Al'Q.
4. It may be a greater threat to the region then Saddam's Iraq was.

This seems the most likely outcome to me. I am not happy to hear that Al'Q is getting exactly what they want. But I don't see how this is going to pan out differently.

The question is how much power will Al'Q have in the resulting state. Hopefully little, and Al'Z will continue to screw it up. The character of the resulting state in Iraq will have a huge impact on the future of world, and while people like Al'Z and the Iranians and the Americans are trying to influence it, it really comes down to the Iraqis. I hope Bush has read them well, but I fear that three very different cultures are easy to tear apart.

Having said that, I detect weakness in Zawahari. He sees the future of his movement in Iraq. That puts Al'Z in a very powerful position vis-a-vis Al'Q.

Letter from Zawahari to Zarqawi