] But today Galton's beautiful form might not be so
] regular. Although bell curve distribution is still
] considered normal, a surprising number of economic and
] social phenomena now seem to follow a different arc.
] Instead of being high in the center and low on the sides,
] this new distribution is low in the center and high on
] the sides. Call it the well curve.

Death of the middle class

] In the case of physical property, we take it for granted
] that the ownership right should have the potential of
] persisting as long as the physical object itself. In the
] case of an idea, however, we have chosen to strike a
] different balance in recognition of the chaos that could
] follow from having to trace back all the thoughts
] implicit in one's current undertaking and pay a royalty
] to the originator of each one. So rather than adopting
] that obviously principled but unworkable approach, we
] have chosen instead to follow the lead of British common
] law and place time limits on intellectual property
] rights.

I'm rerecommending this. I've read it now. Greenspan explains the changing nature of the situation just as I have in the past, and this talk offers itself as a good reference for such an explanation, as people usually don't want to take my word for it. :)

Intellectual Property is broken. You heard it here from the guy that runs the economy. So don't tell me I'm being silly.

Of course, Greenspans perspective on how to fix it is probably 180 degrees from mine.

FRB: Speech, Greenspan-Market economies--April 4, 2003

] Whether we protect intellectual property as an
] inalienable right or as a privilege vouchsafed by the
] sovereign, such protection inevitably entails making some
] choices that have crucial implications for the balance we
] strike between the interests of those who innovate and
] those who would benefit from innovation.

This is a worrysome and cryptic comment.

1. He raises the specter of Intellectual Property as an inalienable right. With respect to the Constitution that is an extremely radical position. It has gained ground in recent years because of careful marketing efforts by the media industries. His comment is too vauge to know what he really wants, only that he thinks IP should be strengthened.

2. The separation of "those who innovate" and "those who would benefit from innovation" into two separate and exclusive groups is crusty industrial age thinking.

3. Finance people often do not understand the economic importance of activity which occurs outside of the market. I didn't figure Greenspan to be one of those people. Your strong protections for innovators aren't going to do you much good if you can't innovate because all of your citizens are stupid. If you create a world where culture only exists for entertainment purposes and comment, criticisms, and derivative works are all impossible to produce your culture will stagnate and your people will become dull.

4. If you have to rebuild the entire operating system from scratch in order to make a small improvement to a particular feature, you aren't going to do it. IP maximalism hurts innovation.

Greenspan: Secure intellectual property

] One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a
] global recession this year, prompted in large part by
] fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
] (SARS), the "mystery illness" with cold-like symptoms
] that is blamed for 78 deaths in 15 countries, CNNfn has
] learned.
]
] Morgan Stanley's chief economist in the United States,
] Stephen Roach, will formally advise clients Friday that
] he's forecasting a world recession in 2003. His previous
] forecast was for an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.

A long, tough war causes moderate Islamists to join radicals, Russians to renew their distrust of the west (anyone else notice they are moving their navy into the Arabic Sea?), increasingly common terrorist incidents, instablility in the UN and NATO systems... Throw in a plauge... Decreased travel, deaths...

Uncertainty.

Prolonged uncertainty keeps money in shoe boxes.

No new investment means no new jobs, which cuts consumer spending. Uncertainty becomes self fulfilling... Weakness... Depression... Poverty...

Economist predicts recession, partly linked to SARS - Apr. 2, 2003

] Pareto claimed that in just about every society, the
] probability of having a certain wealth follows the same
] mathematical relationship for the best-off members of
] society. If you plot a graph of per-capita wealth against
] the number of individuals who are worth each amount, the
] curve is always the same - it has a mathematical form
] called a power law.

More social power laws.

Wealth spawns corruption

] "The DMCA is one of those laws that limits criminal
] prosecutions to willful violations. In other words,
] Congress only wanted violations of the DMCA to be
] criminal when the person actually knew that they were
] violating the law and did it anyway. Because the San Jose
] jury was not convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that
] ElcomSoft knew they were violating the law, the jury
] acquitted. "

politechbot.com: GWU prof Orin Kerr explains why Elcomsoft acquittal happened

"What does the future hold when every garage has got a new car in it?"

As Post-Boom Dust Settles, the South Grimly Downsizes

A very interesting set of challenges facing our economy over the next 25 years and some strategy for addressing those challenges.

I like most of the recommendations being made here, but I find the predictions to be ominous. Our productivity growth for the last 20 years has been based on having more people with higher education levels. Eventually you reach a point where you max that out, and then growth slows.

One of the more interesting conclusions here: The powers that be are strongly incented to create as much upward social mobility as possible.

How Will America Work in the 21st Century? (LARGE PDF)

This is an interesting report on global wages. Lots of good data and interesting conclusions. Its easy to decide on a course of action based on the data here. Please try to look critically at the conclusions YOU come to from this data.

For example, the author seems to conclude that wage equity in poor countries would improve if professionals and executives were prevented from working in or for countries other then their country of origin. This conclusion presents a classic example of an issue traditional left and right wing perspectives could never agree on.

A traditional left perspective would advocate the importance of equality and would put little stock in the rights of wealthy upper classes.

A traditional right wing perspective would advocate individual liberty, claiming that it is simply immoral for governments to restrict the free travel or free association of their people, no matter what the cost may be.

This is just an example. There are lots of juicy fault lines like this in this information.

International Wage Determination and Globalization

Yet with the U.S. economy now back to its stall speed, that's precisely the risk. Courtesy of the government's newly revised depiction of the U.S. economy, the odds of a double dip have risen, in my view. I would now place a 60 percent to 65 percent chance on such a possibility in the second half of this year.

Double dip alert