] Reducing the federal budget deficit (or preferably moving
] it to surplus) appears to be the most effective action
] that could be taken to augment domestic saving.
] Significantly increasing private saving in the United
] States--more particularly, finding policies that would
] elevate the personal saving rate from its current
] extraordinarily low level--of course would also be
] helpful. Corporate saving in the United States has risen
] to its highest rate in decades and is unlikely to
] increase materially. Alternative approaches to reducing
] our current account imbalance by reducing domestic
] investment or inducing recession to suppress consumption
] obviously are not constructive long-term solutions.

Greenspan says "I can't fix this. Ask Congress."

FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Panel discussion: Euro in Wider Circles--November 19, 2004

] Morgan Stanley
]
] Steve Roach Weekly Commentary
]
] Global Economic Forum
]
] November 24, 2004

A five minute long presentation if you can get through the javascript bonanza that sheilds it from you. The key quote: "We hope for an orderly decline in the value of the dollar, but the risk of a disorderly decline cannot be taken lightly."

Morgan Stanley: Steven Roach on the Dollar

] Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking
] giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being
] bearish.
]
] But you should hear what he's saying in private.
]
] Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
] last week, including a group at Fidelity.
]
] His prediction: America has no better than a 10
] percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
]
] Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the
] Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A
] stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck
] me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
] in public.''

BostonHerald.com - Business: Economic `Armageddon' predicted

] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise
] its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points
] to 1-3/4 percent.
]
] The Committee believes that, even after this
] action, the stance of monetary policy remains
] accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth
] in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic
] activity. After moderating earlier this year partly in
] response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output
] growth appears to have regained some traction, and labor
] market conditions have improved modestly.

Fed raises rates!

] A well-managed corporation devotes some portion of its
] research and development budget to basic research, in
] fields of science that underlie its main business. Isn't
] understanding the market as important to the economy as
] understanding solid-state physics is to IBM? If we can
] map the human genome, why can't we map how a man loses
] his livelihood? If millions can contribute a few cycles
] of their PCs to the search for a signal from outer space,
] why can't they join a coordinated search for patterns in
] financial markets?

Wired 12.08: Mandelbrot's challenge to the finance industry

] The 32,000 net jobs added in July represented the
] smallest gain in hiring since December and followed a
] revised gain of just 78,000 in June, even less than
] previously reported. May's payrolls also were revised
] down to show a gain of 208,000.
]
] "Employers got cold feet," said economist Ken Mayland,
] president of ClearView Economics. "Employers just don't
] have the confidence in the economy that we need to
] sustain the kind of economic growth that we've seen."

Forbes.com: Only 32,000 Jobs Are Added in July

] I call it the Kerry trade, which is not to be confused
] with the "carry trade," a major position among hedge
] funds involving money borrowed at low U.S. interest rates
] and invested in products that pay higher rates.
]
] The Kerry trade has been rampant on Wall Street in the
] last several weeks as large investors sell their holdings
] to hedge against the possibility that the Massachusetts
] junior senator could actually, might possibly win in
] November.
]
] The theme behind it is that if a tax-and-spend Democrat
] wins the White House, the stock market will immediately
] tank, so better to sell now and be in cash as long as the
] polls indicate that it could be a close vote.
]
] But the theme is wrong for several reasons.

Unwinding the Kerry trade - Commentary: Sell Iraq, buy the economy

] But while the U.S. economy ekes forward, then slips back,
] the Korean and Chinese economies are growing some twice
] as fast. While the U.S. pretends to have a stock market
] resurgence--the figment of a commendably reflated
] dollar--Korea and China are undergoing real equity
] expansions

Check out South Korea Index:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EWY&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Forbes.com: Korean Broadband Explosion

] Believe it or not, the following projections are made by
] an advisory service whose 2004 target for the Dow Jones
] Industrials Average is 9,400 -- some 1,200 points below
] where it closed on Tuesday.

Value Line's forecast for the Dow in 2004

] I'm about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade
] deficit and also suggest a remedy for the problem.

Buffet: America's growing trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us.