] "...there's always a chance that this month's forecasts will
] be off again. The long term, as always, is the smartest
] focus."
]
] Yes, let's think about the long term. About the
] structural imbalances, the Federal Deficit, the massive
] debt build up, the current account deficit. The fact that
] 50% of U.S. Treasuries are now in the hands of foreign
] holders. The increasingly expensive (and over-stretched)
] military. The reluctance of Corporate America to
] aggressively hire or make CapEx investments.

Ritholtz rips Rosen a new one...

The Big Picture: Economic Cheerleaders

] In research that Phil and I did for our book, "Yes, You
] Can Time the Market," we found that returns were even
] better for those who bought when the indexes were below
] their 15-year moving average of price to earnings than if
] they just bought randomly. This is such a time.

Ben Stein says: It's a Good Time to Buy

] Overlooked in yesterday's Oil-a-palooza was March's data
] on Durable Goods. To say the least, the number stunk the
] joint up. I expect there is a ways to go before we are in
] danger of a recession --like 12 to 18 months, this number
] merely confirms our prior expectations of fading stimulus
] in the post-bubble environment.

The Big Picture: Durable Goods: Bleech

] The bears can make a persuasive case for a continued
] pullback, and I think we're looking at another decline.
] Here's how to play the weakness.

MSN Money - 7 reasons the bears might be right - Jubak's Journal

] LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices could touch $105 a barrel
] in the next few years, the influential investment bank
] Goldman Sachs said Thursday.
] "Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy
] noted above, we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to
] exceed $4 per gallon," they said.

Goldman says oil could spike to $105 a barrel - Mar. 31, 2005

] Human beings, it turns out, are wired to make dumb
] investing mistakes. What's more, we are wired not to
] learn from them, but to make them again and again. If
] there is consolation, it is that it's not our fault. We
] are born suckers.

Born Suckers - The greatest Wall Street danger of all: you. By Henry Blodget

] Just about everyone is worrying about the tanking dollar
] and the enormous U.S. trade deficit. So it's high time
] for Alan Greenspan, the nation's central banker, to step
] in and tell us how we might deal with the wilting
] greenback.
]
] Instead, the Fed chairman has made a speech that will go
] down as the one of most flagrant pieces of self-serving
] tripe in financial history.

Greenspan's oped not universally loved.

Dollar's Dip Shows Greenspan in Denial

] Reducing the federal budget deficit (or preferably moving
] it to surplus) appears to be the most effective action
] that could be taken to augment domestic saving.
] Significantly increasing private saving in the United
] States--more particularly, finding policies that would
] elevate the personal saving rate from its current
] extraordinarily low level--of course would also be
] helpful. Corporate saving in the United States has risen
] to its highest rate in decades and is unlikely to
] increase materially. Alternative approaches to reducing
] our current account imbalance by reducing domestic
] investment or inducing recession to suppress consumption
] obviously are not constructive long-term solutions.

Greenspan says "I can't fix this. Ask Congress."

FRB: Speech, Greenspan--Panel discussion: Euro in Wider Circles--November 19, 2004

] Morgan Stanley
]
] Steve Roach Weekly Commentary
]
] Global Economic Forum
]
] November 24, 2004

A five minute long presentation if you can get through the javascript bonanza that sheilds it from you. The key quote: "We hope for an orderly decline in the value of the dollar, but the risk of a disorderly decline cannot be taken lightly."

Morgan Stanley: Steven Roach on the Dollar

] Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking
] giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being
] bearish.
]
] But you should hear what he's saying in private.
]
] Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown
] last week, including a group at Fidelity.
]
] His prediction: America has no better than a 10
] percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
]
] Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the
] Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A
] stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck
] me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than
] in public.''

BostonHerald.com - Business: Economic `Armageddon' predicted