It seems like yesterday. But it’s only been a little over five years since we were going through the same drill that is playing out today -- bemoaning the excesses of an asset bubble and hunkering down for the inevitable post-bubble shakeout. Five years ago, it was the equity bubble. Today, it’s the property bubble. These are not isolated events. As night follows day, one bubble has spawned the next. And we have the Federal Reserve to thank for this grand continuum and the cumulative toll it is taking on the US economy. Sadly, as America lurches from bubble to bubble, the endgame is looking all the more treacherous.

The debate has an eerie sense of deja vu. Today, there are those who dispute the very existence of a US property bubble. Similarly, five years ago, there were many who argued that US equities were not over-valued...

This is rubbish.

Morgan Stanley: Steve Roach on housing

When the housing boom ends, what is the possible impact on the US economy? This is a broad brush look at three major potential problems:

1) Increased Unemployment.
2) Loss of mortgage equity withdrawal on consumer spending.
3) Financial distress.

Angry Bear - When the Bubble Pops...

Employers added 78,000 non-farm payroll jobs in May, the smallest gain since August 2003 and a sharp slowdown from the 274,000 added in April, the Labor Department said.

On the matter of last month's jobs numbers...

U.S. Economy Continues to Produce Jobs, At Slower Rate

] "...there's always a chance that this month's forecasts will
] be off again. The long term, as always, is the smartest
] focus."
]
] Yes, let's think about the long term. About the
] structural imbalances, the Federal Deficit, the massive
] debt build up, the current account deficit. The fact that
] 50% of U.S. Treasuries are now in the hands of foreign
] holders. The increasingly expensive (and over-stretched)
] military. The reluctance of Corporate America to
] aggressively hire or make CapEx investments.

Ritholtz rips Rosen a new one...

The Big Picture: Economic Cheerleaders

] In research that Phil and I did for our book, "Yes, You
] Can Time the Market," we found that returns were even
] better for those who bought when the indexes were below
] their 15-year moving average of price to earnings than if
] they just bought randomly. This is such a time.

Ben Stein says: It's a Good Time to Buy

] Overlooked in yesterday's Oil-a-palooza was March's data
] on Durable Goods. To say the least, the number stunk the
] joint up. I expect there is a ways to go before we are in
] danger of a recession --like 12 to 18 months, this number
] merely confirms our prior expectations of fading stimulus
] in the post-bubble environment.

The Big Picture: Durable Goods: Bleech

] The bears can make a persuasive case for a continued
] pullback, and I think we're looking at another decline.
] Here's how to play the weakness.

MSN Money - 7 reasons the bears might be right - Jubak's Journal

] LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices could touch $105 a barrel
] in the next few years, the influential investment bank
] Goldman Sachs said Thursday.
] "Based on our analysis of gasoline spending and the economy
] noted above, we estimate that U.S. gasoline prices may need to
] exceed $4 per gallon," they said.

Goldman says oil could spike to $105 a barrel - Mar. 31, 2005

] Human beings, it turns out, are wired to make dumb
] investing mistakes. What's more, we are wired not to
] learn from them, but to make them again and again. If
] there is consolation, it is that it's not our fault. We
] are born suckers.

Born Suckers - The greatest Wall Street danger of all: you. By Henry Blodget

] Just about everyone is worrying about the tanking dollar
] and the enormous U.S. trade deficit. So it's high time
] for Alan Greenspan, the nation's central banker, to step
] in and tell us how we might deal with the wilting
] greenback.
]
] Instead, the Fed chairman has made a speech that will go
] down as the one of most flagrant pieces of self-serving
] tripe in financial history.

Greenspan's oped not universally loved.

Dollar's Dip Shows Greenspan in Denial